Articles

Prediction of changes in the vegetation cover of Ukraine due to climate warming

User Rating:  / 0
PoorBest 

Authors:


V.M.Skrobala, orcid.org/0000-0002-0606-8079, National University of Forestry of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine

V.V.Popovych, orcid.org/0000-0003-2857-0147, Lviv State University of Life Safety, Lviv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

P.V.Bosak, orcid.org/0000-0002-0303-544X, Lviv State University of Life Safety, Lviv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

T.I.Shuplat, orcid.org/0000-0003-3497-2636, Lviv State University of Life Safety, Lviv, Ukraine, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


повний текст / full article



Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu. 2022, (4): 096 - 105

https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2022-4/096



Abstract:



Purpose.
To study ecological regularities of the formation of vegetation cover in Ukraine depending on the climatic conditions and analyze its possible changes due to global warming.


Methodology.
The research methodology involves the following: differentiation of the climatic conditions and evaluation of the significance of climatic indices at the level of territorial units of a geobotanical zoning based on variance analysis; multiple ordering of the geographic locations in terms of climatic indices basing on the analysis of main components (Principle Component Analysis); development of a typological scheme of the vegetation cover relying upon a discriminant analysis; statistic processing of the climatic parameters.


Findings.
Modelling of spatial differentiation of climatic indices depending on the location latitude and longitude as well as altitude above the sea level helped analyze the connection of vegetation cover and climate. It has been determined that peculiarities of the vegetation cover formation according to a scheme of geobotanical zoning is characterized in the most accurate way by the difference of such climatic indices as: air temperature in January, July, and August; monthly precipitation amounts during June-September; duration of a frost-free period; and hydrothermal coefficient of T.G. Selianinov. The main regularity of the formation of Ukrainian vegetation cover has been defined. The regularity means the following structure of interrelation between the climatic indices: along with the growing average monthly temperatures of June-September and decreasing precipitation amounts from April to September, the indices of climatic water availability decrease along with the increasing heat availability indices (duration of an active vegetation period and total of temperatures per that period, average annual temperature). This regularity represents a gradient of climatic indices from the Ukrainian Carpathians towards the southern Crimean coast. It has been determined that during some years of the early 21st century, the conditions peculiar for a steppe area were formed for the forest and forest steppe areas.


Originality.
The vegetation cover of Ukraine is characterized by the ecological range, which is evaluated basing on ordering of the geographical locations in terms of coverage of complex climatic environmental gradients. A typological scheme of the Ukrainian vegetation cover can be represented in a two-dimensional space in the form of square parabola, whose left branch shows a gradient of climatic factors and changes in vegetation cover from the west to the north-east and right branch indicates it from the north-east to the south. Graphic visualization of climatic information on the basis of ecograms and typological schemes of vegetation cover can be used to predict the vegetation cover dynamics due to certain climatic changes.


Practical value.
While understanding the climatic conditions of geographic locations during certain periods of time, one can identify their location in the ecological and coenotic range of Ukrainian vegetation and predict their stability and possible changes in the vegetation cover due to global warming.



Keywords:
climate changes, typology of the vegetation cover, vegetation changes, mathematical modelling

References.


1. Fedele, G., Donatti, C.I., Harvey, C.A., Hannah, L., & Hole,D.G. (2019). Transformative adaptation to climate change for sustainable social-ecological systems. Environmental Science & Policy, 101, 116-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.07.001.

2. Workie, T.G., & Debella, H.J. (2018). Climate change and its effects on vegetation phenology across ecoregions of Ethiopia. Global Ecology and Conservation, 13, e00366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2017.e00366.

3. Gubasheva, B.E., & Khassenova, .. (2021). Assessment of the ecological state of soils in the territory of production impact. Vestnik KazNRTU, 143(1), 17-23. https://doi.org/10.51301/vest.su.2021.v143.i1.03.

4. rubetskoy, K.N., Miletenko, N.A., & Fedorov, .V. (2021). Ensuring ecologically balanced development of resources of Earth as obligatory component of harmony of subsoil. Vestnik KazNRTU, 143(4), 25-30. https://doi.org/10.51301/vest.su.2021.i4.04.

5. Gorova, A., Pavlychenko, A., & Borysovska, O. (2013). The study of ecological state of waste disposal areas of energy and mining companies. Annual Scientific-Technical Collation of Mining, 169-172. https://doi.org/10.1201/b16354-29.

6. Moshynskyi, V., Malanchuk, Z., Tsymbaliuk, V., Malanchuk, L., Zhomyruk, R., & Vasylchuk, O. (2020). Research into the process of storage and recycling technogenic phosphogypsum placers. Mining of Mineral Deposits, 14(2), 95-102. https://doi.org/10.33271/mining14.02.095.

7. Kalybekov, T., Rysbekov, K., Sandibekov, M., Bi, Y.L., & Toktarov, A. (2020). Substantiation of the intensified dump reclamation in the process of field development. Mining of Mineral Deposits, 14(2), 59-65. https://doi.org/10.33271/mining14.02.059.

8. Bosak, P., Popovych, V., Stepova, K., & Dudyn, R. (2020). Environmental impact and toxicological properties of mine dumps of the Lviv-Volyn Coal basin. News of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Series of Geology and Technical Sciences, 2(440), 48-54.

9. Skrobala, V., Popovych, V., & Pinder, V. (2020). Ecological patterns for vegetation cover formation in the mining waste dumps of the Lviv-Volyn coal basin. Mining of Mineral Deposits, 14(2), 119-127. https://doi.org/10.33271/mining14.02.119.

10. Pieratti, E., Paletto, A., Atena, A., Bernardi, S., Palm, M., Patzelt,D., , & Schnabel, T. (2020). Environmental and climate change impacts of eighteen biomass-based plants in the alpine region: a comparative analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 242. 118449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118449.

11. Bazaluk, O., Sadovenko, I., Zahrytsenko, A., Saik, P., Lozynskyi,V., & Dychkovskyi, R. (2021). Forecasting Underground Water Dynamics within the Technogenic Environment of a Mine Field: Case Study. Sustainability, 13(13), 7161. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137161.

12. Rudakov, D., & Westermann, S. (2021). Analytical modeling of mine water rebound: Three case studies in closed hard-coal mines in Germany. Mining of Mineral Deposits, 15(3), 22-30. https://doi.org/10.33271/mining15.03.022.

13. Zheng, K., Wei, J.-Z., Pei, J.-Y., Cheng, H., Zhang, X.-L., Huang, F.-Q., Li, F.-M., & Ye, J.-S. (2019). Impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation variation in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Science of The Total Environment, 660, 236-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.022.

14. Qu, S., Wang, L., Lin, A., Zhu, H., & Yuan, M. (2018). What drives the vegetation restoration in Yangtze River basin, China: Climate change or anthropogenic factors? Ecological Indicators, 90, 438-450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.03.029.

15. Varol, T., Canturk, U., Cetin, M., Ozel, H.B., & Sevik, H. (2021). Impacts of climate change scenarios on European ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in Turkey. Forest Ecology and Management, 491, 119199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119199.

16. Galleguillos, M., Gimeno, F., Puelma, C., Zambrano-Bigiarini,M., Lara, A., & Rojas, M. (2021). Disentangling the effect of future land use strategies and climate change on streamflow in a Mediterranean catchment dominated by tree plantations. Journal of Hydrology, 595, 126047. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126047.

17. Kycheryavyi, V.P., Popovych, V., Kycheryavyi, V.S., Dyda O., Shuplat, T., & Bosak, P. (2021). The Influence of Climatic and Edaphic Conditions on the Development of Thuja occidentalis Smaragd Under the Urban Conditions of a Large City. Journal of Ecological Engineering, 22(4), 324-331. https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/133094.

18. Didovets, I., Krysanova, V., Burger, G., Snizhko, S., Balabukh,V., & Bronstert, A. (2019). Climate change impact on regional floods in the Carpathian region. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 22, 100590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.01.002.

19. Didovets, I., Lobanova, A., Bronstert, A., Snizhko, S., Maule, C., & Krysanova, V. (2017). Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in three representative ukrainian catchments using eco-hydrological modelling. Water, 9, 204. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9030204.

20. Carter, V.A., Bobek, P., Moravcov, A., olcov, A., Chiverrell,R.C., Clear, J.L., , & Kune, P. (2020). The role of climate-fuel feedbacks on Holocene biomass burning in upper-montane Carpathian forests. Global and Planetary Change, 193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103264.

 

Visitors

6236971
Today
This Month
All days
1425
63648
6236971

Guest Book

If you have questions, comments or suggestions, you can write them in our "Guest Book"

Registration data

ISSN (print) 2071-2227,
ISSN (online) 2223-2362.
Journal was registered by Ministry of Justice of Ukraine.
Registration number КВ No.17742-6592PR dated April 27, 2011.

Contacts

D.Yavornytskyi ave.,19, pavilion 3, room 24-а, Dnipro, 49005
Tel.: +38 (056) 746 32 79.
e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
You are here: Home